Assorted Weekend Charts

Update on Palladium

Looking good, almost there..........

Palladium Retirement Trade

If this works out it could be the short trade of my career. 11 waves is all that is allowed.

Short on the weekend, and sleeping well.

I took a shot today based on time fibo's. Typical corrections take between 38.2 and 61.8 of the time of the preceeding impulse. The max time allowed is 100%. As shown on the chart the 100% time extension of the big move this week is Monday. Buying Puts to hold for a couple days isn't too risky, and when the reward is off the charts, why not?  As an added bonus, check out what happened to the Dollar EOD. Should have bought more.

Sugar set up, could be sweet!!!

I have been following the amazing work of Hank Wernicki and his work with Elliott fractals. This trade set up is on a top pair of fractals on the 60 minute chart. If things go to plan, then price should run up to $19.15 or so, and then fall in 5 waves. Futures Juntures is also calling for this market to start to sell off at about the same level. I like the odds, let's see what happens.

Lose yourself update

Still working toward the biggest shorting opportunity in years.

Lose Yourself

"Look, if you had one shot, or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted in one moment
Would you capture it? Or just let it slip?" -  Eminem
 

"This is the moment." repo105

Friday, the 13th.

What happened to my 5th?

Shorts that don't use time relationships may have been scrambling this afternoon. Nice impulse down, nice triangle consolidation, sell off should be next, right? That's right, except for one thing, it didn't do it in the time scheduled. Once a correction goes past the 100% time extension of the impluse odds are it's not a correction. I give wave 2's leeway but 4th's, never. Shorts late to the party get scared unless what they expect happens in short order. The longer it takes, the more nervous they get, and the shorts that rode the 3 down start thinking about taking profits. Stop loss orders get placed just above the triangle, break out traders placing buy orders, short covering all add fuel to the fire once the triangle breaks. Also, it can be argued that looking closely at Wave A of what looked like the 4th you can see a 5 wave structure (LDT)therefore making the consolidation a Wave B instead of a Wave 4.. It ain't ever easy.

Amazing Cocoa Fractional

After studying the work of Hank Wernicki over the past couple months, I have become aware of the wonderful world of Elliott fractionals. Patterns that repeat themselves. I have been watching Cocoa for weeks. We got a fractional this week, the result is shown on the chart. Amazing, simply amazing.

Pictures speak louder than words.

Who says you can't time the market?

I ran a couple fibo time extensions off the extremes of an impluse from the 1833 low in the NDX. Both 61.8 extensions came out to the same point in time as did the 100%. Price was forming what looked like a 4th wave triangle, time hit the 61.8, you see what happened. It just doesn't get any better than that for an Elliott Wave guy. Remember, corrections typically take a 38.2 to 61.8 time extension of a motive wave, complex corrections 100%. It was chirp or get off the branch for the NDX, it chirped. Since the 4th was a triangle I am expecting a nice retracement next at least back to the triangle today.

Setups I am following

Coffee - Wave A as scheduled

Palladium - Wave 2

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Oil - Wave 2 just about done

Sugar -made the turn on schedule , wait on a 3 wave advance to short.

Natural Gas - looking for a W2 rally to short into. Still using EWI's count but DTosc oversold on the weekly makes me a little skittish on this market. However, nice 5W pattern down so maybe they are right.

Dollar back to prior 4th

Copper - looking for that 5W down, made turn on schedule today but need follow through

Aussie -  looks like a short to me pretty soon

Copper Update

Copper is turning on schedule, so far. Looks like it ran stops yesterday so no one could enjoy the ride down and punish the chasers as well. Been there, done that. Trade under $3.30 and I'm interested but will wait on completed wave pattern in a smaller time frame to short if we get a set up.

Setups for the Week

1. Natural Gas -  great call by EWI. Enter after a 3W rally for a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd. Could make my year in 1 week. Watch the reaction off the gap fill. EWI's expanding DT allows a 4th overlap of the 1st. Their labeling, not mine.

2. Sugar - looked like the initial decline off the Fibo for wave C started today. Need a complete 5 down then a correction, then sell hard with both fists. Never fails, soon as Bloomberg runs a story about how much something is going up, it goes down. The story this weekend was about shipments of Sugar couldn't get out of South America because of this and that. Should have shorted Monday AM as soon as the market opened.

3. Coffee - looks like reversal started today. Good short coming up - 5 down, 3 up, sell.

4. Copper - scratch trade for now. Went though resistance like hot knife through butter. But, I still don't trust it yet. We will see tomorrow. It's too risky for me to buy up here so will pass unless a nice entry shows up.

So, the 1st 3 markets above showed their hand today it seems. Need some completed  5 wave patterns, corrections up, and then let's make some fast money.

NG - Basis Sept 2010

I've been following NG since EWI offered it on free week. This is a continuation of the count they had before the free trial was over. Prices could turn at anytime since we are at the 61.8% retracement of the previous wave and within the 31.2 to 61.8% typical time extension for a correction. However, a perfect setup would be on 8/3 at the 61.8% time extension, the 78.6% price retracement, and where C = 1.618 X A at just over $5. Trading under $4.65 before $5 would likely signal the sell off in W3 has started. Pricing has diverged with RSI on the hourly so it's going to be a chore to get above $5 I would think. All this conjecture is based off EWI's count and remains valid as long as W2 is not exceeded. Right now it looks good, C even looks like a ED to me. If EWI is right, a 3rd of a 3rd is next which is the EWer's dream. (As a reader suggested, 4ths aren't supposed to overlap 1sts. They claim expanding diagonal triangle.  EWI call, not mine)