The perfect Elliott Wave - TLT

Trade alert - Cocoa powered through the fractal - look for much higher pricing.

Cocoa just crapped out!!

Looks like Cocoa just rolled another 7 after a few points have been made. A 7 point fractal is complete along with the prerequisite copy of the deep retractment fractal that appears before a big sell off. The dealer is about to take all the bets down in a big way.

Gold Fractal Pair

Euro - right on time, right on target.

Everyone says you can't time markets. I don't think you take a trade unless you can.

Looks like a Wernicki pair to me.

The Toronto Stock index is tracing out a very interesting pattern. So far it has formed an exact replica of the topping pattern from 2008. Hank Wernicki's theory is that markets operate in chaos until a fractal appears bringing order, and a turning point in price upon completion of a fractal pair. The first fractal is the parent, the second is the child in this case. From a trading perspective, the appearance of the pair allows for a low risk entry usually close to top tick. Since most of the global markets are in sinc a turn in this index would coincide with a turn in the DOW, etc. This pair is appearing right where you would expect it to considering the overwhelming bullish sentiment, etc. I'm thnking sell the QE2.

Wonder what's on that Croc's menu? I'm thinking bull meat.

Need I say more? Love those time fibo's!!!!

Fibo's are telling me the top is in

As shown on the charts, there is a convergence of fibo extensions that come together at this exact point in time. The bottom line is that index markets are scheduled for a turn starting now. It's my experience that time relationships can be uncanny in their ability to turn a market, sometimes to the minute. If the markets are anything other than red from here then IMO it's time to start looking for bullish entry points. If the Dow takes out the high from April then not only did the fractal road map that has been in place for 2 years fail, but both time and price were unable to turn the market and we can expect bullish markets and inflation in the months ahead. I really think the top is in, but price will be the ultimate decision maker.

USD Flash Crash for Dummies

Last in the series SPX for Dummies

Copper short entry

Kiss the underside of the broken trend line, 5 down, 3 up, A=C, 61.8% retracement, 100% time extension, what's not to like?

$GDOW for Dummies

Throw over for Dummies

Update Dummy Chart

I'll go ahead and jinx it, but here is the Euro chart. Turn date - 10/3

SPY gap

Oil Fractal Pair

Today is Prechter Day - UUP is at the limit - must turn today!!

OK so far, the UUP has NO business trading under $22.75 from now on.

The Yen has no business above C either.

UPDATE - NEW HIGH ON FUTURES - TRASH THE COUNT

This count has gone from being a trading idea to the EW that keeps on giving. Triple 3, with the last wave of the triple as a triple.  I don't even know if that's allowed! Anyway, thought I would throw it up there to hopefully attract some flamers to tell me what an idiot I am, I deserve it.

JYP for Dummies

Looks like the Yen is setting up for a nice low risk trade.

Update on Palladium

This morning's sell off is exactly what needed to happen for the wave count to be correct. There are 2 critical price levels that need to be taken out before the odds go way up this is a tradable top, I have shown them on the chart. The most important level is around $535. Trade below that would lock in a 3 wave rally from $525 and enough evidence for me to take a long term short postion.

Closing update: Price traded under the swing low. Next step is to penetrate the corrective price channel, then trade under b to lock in 3 waves up.

Dummy update

The time relationships are pretty much shot at this point, but that's not the end of the world for wave 2's. I've had a lot better luck timing W4's than 2's. As long as the price stays in the correction channel the bears are still in good shape. The GDOW went through the 100% time retracement and the typical price retracement just tapping the brakes for a day or two.

Palladium - Lighting striking twice in the same spot.

The pricing action of late in Palladium is a copy of the the fractal from April / May this year. Now the trade is as simple as it gets - if the fractal holds short the market, if it fails go long. Thanks to Hank Wernicki for his wonderful work in identifying trading opportunities using fractal pairs. 

$GDOW for Dummies

Dummies SPX chart, nothing has changed

Saga continues - Bear's seem to be taking control

This chart shows the Elliott base channel that must give way at some point to get the sell off started. The fractal held which is a great step in the right direction.

Getting back to the very basics of EW, there are 2 types of waves. Motive, and corrective. After getting away from the charts for a day to take 3 flights up to Green Bay,  I just opened TOS and pulled up the PA chart at the hotel. It's actually kind of silly to think the price action since May is anything other than corrective. Slow, choppy, overlapping, slop and chop. Unless I am missing a bullish count in all those 3's somewhere this market is going to tank. Luckily I hooked up to the internet in a couple airports along the way and was able to raise stops on PAL and SWC and was stopped out in the air at yesterday's highs. Good, time to focus on the short side and a low risk entry. If  I'm wrong,  at least I made the trade with the odds in my favor which is all EW can do for you anyway.

Also, check out the PL chart, basically the same count along with the gift of a ED right where it's supposed to be. NICE!!

And the fractal contiues to hold, by a string....

The price continues to put pressure on the count, just what you would expect if there is going to be big money to be made.   I have locked in very nice gains on PAL and SWC and am prepared to switch to the short side if this fractal holds. If it doesn't I will look for a 3 wave correction in the futures market to enter and continue to ride the two stocks to where ever they want to go. Either way, there should be plenty of profit to go around. It's been interesting to say the least. If this thing breaks up I wouldn't mind seeing a bullish count one day. I wouldn't attemp to try it myself. The bashers have started to come out which usually signals a top, so let's see what happens.

Wait just a damn minute......

Price action tonight may be what we have been looking for after all this time after all. Thanks to an alert poster, EWFaithful, and his comments, I now see that the original labeling was most likely correct. So far, it looks great!! I have now changed back to the original 5 down move instead of the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 which threw me off today when one of the 2's was taken out. The good news is that upon confirmation of a 5 wave move down, a short on the 3 wave correction would be a killer and most likely life style changing trade. Let's go with it for now.

Update -  2 hour fractal pair might be forming. If so, it would raise odds of a major top.

Palladium - New highs?

The odds went way down today that Palladium will sell off. I actually took the other side of the trade and went long this morning on PAL and SWC once $550 was taken out. Although the wave count can be re-labeled to show a sell off forthcoming, the odds switched today this metal following Gold and Silver to new highs. I'll leave the chart up just in case, and I have no idea how to count the pattern as an impulse, but odds are greater now for more rally. EW can be used to show when you are wrong just as much as when you are right. It's up to us to adjust and trade accordingly.

Wave pattern is complete

We now have a completed wave pattern in Palladium. That doesn't mean the top is in, it just means minimum conditions have been met for a completed pattern. The spike could have been a blow off top, or price could still have a little more to go. Should know in the next day or two, and also if my wave count is correct. If so, a prolonged sell off lasting several weeks if not months should ensue. This also fits in with the topping action of the major indexes and other precious metals.

Elloitt Wave for Dummies - no change in chart lables

This chart still has the same labels as last week, and last month. I have no idea why so many insist on making things more complicated than they are. I think it comes from a need to figure things out instead of just looking at the picture. I throw out this challenge - try to count the sell off in August in 5 waves. For some reason EWI and every other blog I read are still calling it a 5. They preach about not letting your emotions or prejudgements interfere with your wave analysis. If they are counting August as a 5 I don't think they read their own publications.

It's nut cutting time in the Palladium market - two hour chart level.

Elliott Wave for Dummies - Chapter 3

Ok, have a time and a price now for Palladium short

Stop running deluxe.....

There..........

Elliott Wave tor Dummies - Chapter 2 - USD

Elliott Wave for Dummies - Chapter 1 - SPX